A recent pivotal report by Statistics Canada signifies a substantial shift in the methodology for tallying non-permanent residents (NPRs) within Canada. The latest population estimate reveals that Canada is home to 2.2 million non-permanent residents. This statistic starkly contrasts with the data gathered during the 2021 Census, showcasing a disparity of over one million individuals. This report underscores the critical importance of comprehending the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of Canada’s non-permanent resident population. Furthermore, it highlights the significance of utilizing up-to-date and dependable information in the intricate processes of policy formulation and strategic planning. 

In this study, Statistics Canada admits that it previously underestimated the number of non-permanent residents in the country. The updated approach has significant consequences for Canadian public policy in general as well as for immigration, housing, economics, and other related fields. 

Approximately 40.1 million people live in Canada today 

According to recent data, Canada’s non-permanent resident population (NPR) grew by 46% from the previous year. The most significant increase in NPRs since 1971–1972 can be attributed to a substantial increase in study and work permits. 

A population of 40,097,761 is predicted to reach Canada by July 1, 2023, surpassing the notable milestone of 40,000,000 reached in June 2023. Compared to last year, this represents an impressive increase of 1,158,705 individuals (+2.9%). Globally, Canada ranks within the top 20 nations in terms of population growth among G7 nations. 

The population is growing at an incredible 3.3% annually, which is the highest rate in a year since 1957, according to the most recent statistics. Statistics Canada’s projections that the population of Canada may double in just 25 years highlight the dynamic demographic structure of the country and its consequences for future planning and policy. 

Thorough research reveals that between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, net foreign migration will account for around 98% of Canada’s population growth, with the remaining 2% coming from the difference between births and deaths. 

Two key factors can be attributed to this substantial increase in international migration. Firstly, Canada welcomed around 470,000 new permanent residents. Additionally, there was a significant influx of approximately 700,000 non-permanent residents (NPRs). 

Furthermore, fertility rates in Canada reached historic lows, with an average of 1.33 children per woman in 2022, down from 1.44 in 2021. A recent analysis by Statistics Canada revealed that Canadian women had 20,000 fewer children between 2018 and 2022, indicating a broader trend of declining birthrates. 

Updated method for tallying non-permanent residents published by Statistics Canada 

Statistics Canada continually honed its techniques to increase the accuracy of its demographic estimates. The most recent adjustments include people who stay in Canada after their temporary permits expire while awaiting decisions on their requests for extensions from IRCC. These modifications also take into account family members staying in Canada with temporary permission holders. 

Recent findings from CIBC Economics and the C.D. Howe Institute motivated Statistics Canada to make these changes. This research revealed that Statistics Canada’s annual census and quarterly population growth estimates significantly underestimated the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs), including students, temporary foreign workers, and other temporary residents. 

CIBC’s calculations indicate that Canada’s demographic statistics might not encompass as many as one million non-permanent residents. Moreover, the 2021 census data revealed approximately 925,000 NPRs in Canada, in stark contrast to the quarterly estimate’s assertion of 1.17 million NPRs. This underreporting suggests that the actual number of NPRs in Canada could be substantially higher than previously documented. 

Canada is home to 2.2 million non-permanent residents people – Alberta had the highest growth rate 

A substantial 4% increase in its demographic figures makes Alberta the fastest-growing province among Canada’s 13 provinces and territories. This remarkable growth can be attributed to several factors, including the influx of international migrants and a notable increase in Canadians moving from other regions. Over 56,000 people moved to Alberta between July 2022 and July 2023, representing a net gain compared to the number of people who left. 

Statistics Canada reported a record-breaking population expansion in seven provinces. Among all provinces, Prince Edward Island experienced the most robust growth at 3.9%, followed closely by Nova Scotia at 3.2% and New Brunswick at 3.1%. By contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced the smallest growth at 1.3%. 

Ontario and British Columbia achieved a commendable 3% growth rate, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan each reached 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Quebec recorded a record-high 2.3% increase in its population, thereby joining the ranks of provinces experiencing noticeable growth. 

Canadian Immigration Levels Plan 2024-2026 

According to Canadian law, the federal government must unveil its immigration policy no later than November 1st in non-election years. Therefore, we can expect to hear about Canada’s new permanent residence objectives by the beginning of November. 

According to Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan for 2023-2025, the country is targeting to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents each year by 2025. Marc Miller, the federal immigration minister, recently stated that he anticipates either alignment with the current Immigration Levels Plan or an upward adjustment for 2024-2026.