Since the summer of 2023, the way Canada’s Express Entry application management system selects which candidates receive Invitations to Apply (ITAs) has changed significantly.  

Although, in the recent period, the Express Entry in 2023 has been proven to be unpredictable, some patterns over the last few weeks can be used to determine what we can expect for the rest of the year 2023.  

The most significant change to the Express Entry this year was the implementation of the new category-based selection draws for EE candidates, targeting specific attributes. IRCC has introduced six new EE categories for Candidates who meet the specific eligibility requirement. Among them, five categories are occupation-specific, targeting candidates with work experience in the below-mentioned fields, and one category specifically targets French proficient candidates. 

• Healthcare 
• Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) professions 
• Trades, such as carpenters, plumbers, and contractors 
• Transport 
• Agriculture and agrifood 

As per the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the new Express Entry categories have been introduced to increase the number of new immigrants to Canada with work experience in sectors that are in high demand in Canada’s economy. In addition, this will also assist the immigration minister’s responsibility to encourage French-speaking immigration to the Francophone minority communities across Canada, particularly outside Quebec.  

Types of Draws occurred until now.  

According to the Globe and Mail’s recent report, IRCC anticipates that between 28- 31 % of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for Express Entry will be awarded to the STEM category candidates who have work experience in certain STEM occupations. The report further shows that between 11-15 % of EE ITAs will be issued to French-Proficient candidates by the department. About 9-12% of ITAs to healthcare professionals, 3- 4 % to candidates with work experience in Trades, 1% to agriculture and agrifood, and 1% to transport. 

As part of a new tech talent strategy, IRCC has launched many programs to attract candidates in STEM professions, and about 500 candidates with work experience in STEM occupations have received invitations in category-based Express Entry draws so far in 2023.  

Recently, Canada has also introduced open work permits for candidates who have an H-1B specialty visa of the United States. This is because most of the H-1B visa holders are tech professionals. 

Surprisingly, the target of 1000 applications for the program, which began on July 16, 2023, was accomplished within just two days.  

Individuals with an open work permit who enter Canada as temporary residents and obtain work experience in the technology sector may be benefited later when they apply in the Express Entry pool. 

However, not all future Express Entry draws will be based on new categories. Since the inception of category-based draws, IRCC has held three separate all-program draws in which a total of 3,500 candidates received invitations. An all-program Express Entry draw manages three immigration programs, including the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP). In these EE draws, work experience and French language proficiency are not the only deciding factor; the overall CRS score of the candidate, which shorts for the Comprehensive Ranking System, is also considered by the IRCC.  

In addition to this, IRCC may also hold program-specific draws. For instance, the IRCC department might continue to welcome candidates of Express Entry who’ve also obtained a provincial nomination via the Provincial Nominee Program.  

What factor will determine Candidate’s Comprehensive Ranking System scores? 

The Comprehensive Ranking System score or CRS score is an Express Entry evaluation system IRCC uses to assess a candidate’s eligibility alongside other candidates. This system depends on several human capital characteristics, including age, education, work experience, language abilities, and occupation.  

Until now, the minimum CRS score this year ranged from 791 for a PNP-only draw which occurred on February 15, to 375 for a French-specific draw which occurred on July 12, inviting 3,800 Express Entry candidates.  

Since the beginning of category-based selection draws, the CRS score points for all-program draws, and category-based draws there has been a remarkable difference. For instance, for a category-based draw, the highest score until now is 486. On the other hand, the lowest CRS score for an all-program draw is 505 since the first category based occurred on June 28, which is still 19 points below the CRS score of that category-based draw. However, regardless of the type of program or category, obtaining the highest possible CRS score is still beneficial for Express Entry candidates.  

It should be noted that IRCC stated that the department will still rank and issue invitations to candidates who score the highest CRS points in the draws, even in the Express Entry category-based draws. Obtaining a high CRS score can also be advantageous for candidates, as it can improve their eligibility for more than one type of EE draws. Also, candidates who would qualify for the category-based selections may instead receive an invitation to an all-program draw based on which type of draw occurred first.  

Immigration plans for the rest of 2023. 

IRCC has notable Permanent Residents immigration targets under the 2023 -2025 Immigration Levels Plans. As per the plans, IRCC intends to welcome 109,020 new Permanent Residents via Express Entry Program in 2024, which rises to 114,000 new PRs in 2025. The target for Express Entry in 2023 is 82,880, and IRCC is about to meet its goal; until now, 73,448 Express Entry Candidates have already received Invitations to Apply.  

Also, it is expected that IRCC may issue an increased number of ITAs to Express Entry Candidates in the next half of 2023 in order to hit the 2024 immigration targets. This is due to the fact that candidates who will receive invitations now will most probably not be able to enter Canada until 2024. This is because of the IRCC’s six months processing service standard and to select the Express Entry Candidates.  

What to expect for the rest of 2023 

If the current Express Entry trends keep going, the rest of 2023 appears to be a variety of draw types. Some of the draws could be all-program draws or program-specific draws with higher minimum CRS score points and a lower number of ITAs. And the other draws will be category-based selection rounds of invitations with lower CRS scores. Still, even with the minimum CRS scores, the number of invitations issued in a category-based draw may vary notably.