A recent study shows an increased influx of newcomers to Atlantic Canada. It released a report on the province’s higher retention rate for new immigrants for one year and five years following their arrival in Canada. 

The study indicated that the retention rate of newcomers has increased in the Atlantic Canadian regions. It includes New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Besides this, the study recorded that the retention rates in prairie provinces such as Manitoba and Saskatchewan decreased.

The data was collected from the 2022 Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). This database assesses the immigrant retention rate in the provinces and territories. For this, it uses the percentage of immigrant tax filers who filed taxes in the province or territory where they desired to reside in Canada, as highlighted in their PR application. 

It used the tax filing data between 2012- 2016 to assess the five-year immigrant retention rate. To assess one-year retention rates, it utilized data spanning between the years 2016-2020

The Highest Overall Retention Rate is Recorded for Ontario 

Among Canadian provinces, Ontario, BC, and Alberta indicated the highest newcomer retention rates after five years who immigrated to Canada in 2016. In particular, it was over 84% for all three. Among them, Ontario recorded a best retention rate of 91.3%.

The research recorded a sharp decline in newcomer retention rate for Saskatchewan and Manitoba between 2012-2016. 

In particular, for Saskatchewan, the retention rate dropped by 14%. It was at 72.2% initially, which dropped to 57.9%. For Manitoba, it dropped by 11% from 75.1% to 64.1%.

The same pattern was observed in these provinces’ one-year new immigrant retention rates. Manitoba’s one-year retention rate fell from 78.4% to 74.9% between 2016 and 2020. 

The province of Saskatchewan experienced a sharp decline. It went from 75.7% to 64.6% between 2016 and 2020. A notable 11.1 % point drop.

Canadian provinces Prince Edward Island (PEI) and New Brunswick recorded a rise in newcomer retention rate admitted in 2016.

New Brunswick recorded its best retention rate over five years, i.e., 56%. PEI has recorded the lowest retention rate, i.e., 30.9%, across Canada; however, it’s still a 6% increase from the rate in 2012.

The one-year retention rate for both provinces has not shown any clear trends. However, Newfoundland and Labrador’s retention rate increased from 55% to 66.4% between 2016 and 2020.

The increased Influx of Newcomers to Atlantic Canada, particularly skilled workers

As per the study, the higher newcomer retention rate in Atlantic Canada is due to the introduction of the Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program (AIP). It was launched in 2019. 

After this, there is a remarkable increase in the retention rate in Nova Scotia. It increased from 21.5% in 2016 to 63.9% in 2020, which is a hike of 42.4 percentage points.

In addition, New Brunswick also experienced a rise in the retention rate of 65.8% in 2020, whereas, for Newfoundland and Labrador, it was a rise from 31.3% to 50%, i.e., a hike of 18.7 percentage points between 2016 and 2020. 

The Atlantic Immigration Programme is a regional economic immigration program designed to help foreign nationals find work in Canada’s Atlantic provinces. Under this program, new immigrants get a job offer from a designated employer as well as an individualized settlement plan for their family. 

This allows new immigrants to Canada to build connections with their communities and establish quickly. 

These connections significantly influence newcomers’ stay in Canada. 

As per the study, the retention rate was higher for Canadian PRs who entered Canada under the family-class sponsorship programs.

To be more specific, 91.7% of newcomers who entered Canada in 2016 were sponsored by family members and remained in the province where they arrived.

Why Does the Newcomer Retention Rate Matter to Canada?

According to the study, retaining economic immigrants has been crucial in alleviating regional labour shortages.

Notably, the majority of new immigrants settle in larger Canadian cities such as Ontario, British Columbia, and Alberta. This is partially because they have well-established immigrant communities. 

This implies that the other provinces in Canada, especially rural regions, struggle to maintain a strong labor force. 

Thus, to attract newcomers to these regions and address their labor market needs, most Canadian provinces and territories have individual Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs). This is except for Quebec and Nunavut, which do not have a PNP. Provincial and territorial governments use PNPs to nominate candidates to apply for Canadian permanent residence.

Regardless of this, as per the study, immigrants under the PNP have recorded a lower five-year retention rate. It dropped from 79.6% in 2012 newcomers to 71.5% for 2016 newcomers.

Notably, caregiver pilot program immigrants or the Express Entry Canadian Experience Class (CEC) immigrants had a high immigrant retention rate. For instance, in 2016, caregivers admitted in Canada were found to have filed taxes in their target province or territory with a retention rate of 94.9%. This was an 88.1% retention rate for the CEC candidates.